CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 13 · FBS Independents · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

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Full Slate — FBS Independents · Week 13 · 2 games

UConn @ WyomingUConn 74%

Model

UConn -9.0 · mkt UConn —

proj UConn 30.9 · Wyoming 21.9

Total

proj 52.7

Notre Dame @ SyracuseNotre Dame 98%

Model

Notre Dame -28.3 · mkt Notre Dame —

proj Notre Dame 35.2 · Syracuse 6.9

Total

proj 42.1

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.