CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · FBS Independents · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Notre Dame @ Wisconsin0.4 pt gap
Model vs mktNotre Dame -20.9 · mkt Notre Dame -20.5
LeanNotre Dame -20.5
Best priceno live price
WinNotre Dame 93%
Full Slate — FBS Independents · Week 1 · 1 games
Notre Dame @ WisconsinNotre Dame 93%
Model
Notre Dame -20.9 · mkt Notre Dame -20.5
proj Notre Dame 34.2 · Wisconsin 13.3
leans Notre Dame -20.5
Total
proj 47.5 · mkt 47.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.