CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 4 · 7 games
Sam Houston @ Texas TechTexas Tech 100%
Model
Texas Tech -36.9 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj Sam Houston 17.5 · Texas Tech 54.4
Total
proj 71.9
Missouri State @ SMUSMU 97%
Model
SMU -27.6 · mkt SMU —
proj Missouri State 14.8 · SMU 42.4
Total
proj 57.2
Delaware @ VirginiaVirginia 97%
Model
Virginia -27.4 · mkt Virginia —
proj Delaware 11.9 · Virginia 39.2
Total
proj 51.1
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 80%
Model
Jacksonville State -12.0 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Middle Tennessee 21.8 · Jacksonville State 33.8
Total
proj 55.6
Kennesaw State @ Arkansas StateArkansas State 68%
Model
Arkansas State -6.6 · mkt Arkansas State —
proj Kennesaw State 22.7 · Arkansas State 29.2
Total
proj 51.9
Liberty @ Coastal CarolinaCoastal Carolina 52%
Model
Coastal Carolina -0.7 · mkt Coastal Carolina —
proj Liberty 27.3 · Coastal Carolina 28.0
Total
proj 55.3
New Mexico @ New Mexico StateNew Mexico 77%
Model
New Mexico -10.4 · mkt New Mexico —
proj New Mexico 32.3 · New Mexico State 21.9
Total
proj 54.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.