CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 12 · 5 games
Missouri State @ Jacksonville StateJacksonville State 78%
Model
Jacksonville State -10.8 · mkt Jacksonville State —
proj Missouri State 20.8 · Jacksonville State 31.6
Total
proj 52.4
Florida International @ Kennesaw StateKennesaw State 56%
Model
Kennesaw State -2.0 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Florida International 25.9 · Kennesaw State 27.9
Total
proj 53.8
Western Kentucky @ LibertyWestern Kentucky 53%
Model
Western Kentucky -0.9 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Western Kentucky 29.2 · Liberty 28.3
Total
proj 57.5
Delaware @ New Mexico StateDelaware 60%
Model
Delaware -3.5 · mkt Delaware —
proj Delaware 28.1 · New Mexico State 24.7
Total
proj 52.8
Middle Tennessee @ Sam HoustonMiddle Tennessee 61%
Model
Middle Tennessee -3.9 · mkt Middle Tennessee —
proj Middle Tennessee 29.5 · Sam Houston 25.7
Total
proj 55.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.