CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 11 · Conference USA · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Conference USA · Week 11 · 5 games
Middle Tennessee @ LibertyLiberty 76%
Model
Liberty -10.2 · mkt Liberty —
proj Middle Tennessee 21.9 · Liberty 32.1
Total
proj 54.0
Jacksonville State @ Western KentuckyWestern Kentucky 76%
Model
Western Kentucky -9.8 · mkt Western Kentucky —
proj Jacksonville State 21.7 · Western Kentucky 31.5
Total
proj 53.2
New Mexico State @ Missouri StateMissouri State 69%
Model
Missouri State -6.9 · mkt Missouri State —
proj New Mexico State 26.0 · Missouri State 32.9
Total
proj 59.0
Florida International @ DelawareDelaware 50%
Model
Delaware -0.1 · mkt Delaware —
proj Florida International 30.6 · Delaware 30.7
Total
proj 61.3
Kennesaw State @ Sam HoustonKennesaw State 82%
Model
Kennesaw State -13.0 · mkt Kennesaw State —
proj Kennesaw State 33.1 · Sam Houston 20.1
Total
proj 53.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.