CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 3 · 11 games
Kent State @ Ohio StateOhio State 100%
Model
Ohio State -47.7 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Kent State 6.4 · Ohio State 54.1
Total
proj 60.5
UTEP @ MichiganMichigan 100%
Model
Michigan -40.4 · mkt Michigan —
proj UTEP 4.0 · Michigan 44.4
Total
proj 48.5
Buffalo @ Penn StatePenn State 99%
Model
Penn State -34.8 · mkt Penn State —
proj Buffalo 9.5 · Penn State 44.4
Total
proj 53.9
Western Kentucky @ IndianaIndiana 96%
Model
Indiana -24.2 · mkt Indiana —
proj Western Kentucky 14.0 · Indiana 38.2
Total
proj 52.3
Akron @ MinnesotaMinnesota 93%
Model
Minnesota -21.3 · mkt Minnesota —
proj Akron 17.3 · Minnesota 38.6
Total
proj 55.9
Michigan State @ Notre DameNotre Dame 92%
Model
Notre Dame -19.8 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Michigan State 19.2 · Notre Dame 39.0
Total
proj 58.2
Eastern Michigan @ WisconsinWisconsin 86%
Model
Wisconsin -15.6 · mkt Wisconsin —
proj Eastern Michigan 18.1 · Wisconsin 33.7
Total
proj 51.8
Colorado @ NorthwesternNorthwestern 78%
Model
Northwestern -10.8 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Colorado 17.0 · Northwestern 27.8
Total
proj 44.9
Virginia Tech @ MarylandMaryland 57%
Model
Maryland -2.4 · mkt Maryland —
proj Virginia Tech 26.8 · Maryland 29.1
Total
proj 55.9
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.