CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 13 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsAmerican AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Michigan @ Ohio State1.3 pt gap
Model vs mktOhio State -12.8 · mkt Ohio State ~-11.5
LeanOhio State -11.5
Best priceOhio State -11.5 -110best of 2
WinOhio State 82%
Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 13 · 9 games
Michigan @ Ohio StateOhio State 82%
Model
Ohio State -12.8 · mkt Ohio State ~-11.5
proj Michigan 19.6 · Ohio State 32.3
leans Ohio State -11.5
◆ Mid 0
Ohio State -11.5 -110FanDuel
Michigan +11.5 -110FanDuel
Purdue @ IndianaIndiana 98%
Model
Indiana -29.8 · mkt Indiana —
proj Purdue 18.8 · Indiana 48.6
Total
proj 67.4
Washington @ OregonOregon 82%
Model
Oregon -13.0 · mkt Oregon —
proj Washington 20.7 · Oregon 33.7
Total
proj 54.4
Michigan State @ RutgersRutgers 73%
Model
Rutgers -8.5 · mkt Rutgers —
proj Michigan State 24.8 · Rutgers 33.2
Total
proj 58.0
Northwestern @ IllinoisIllinois 67%
Model
Illinois -6.4 · mkt Illinois —
proj Northwestern 24.9 · Illinois 31.4
Total
proj 56.3
Minnesota @ WisconsinWisconsin 52%
Model
Wisconsin -0.9 · mkt Wisconsin —
proj Minnesota 26.5 · Wisconsin 27.4
Total
proj 54.0
Penn State @ MarylandPenn State 88%
Model
Penn State -16.8 · mkt Penn State —
proj Penn State 38.6 · Maryland 21.8
Total
proj 60.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.