CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 12 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 12 · 9 games
UCLA @ MichiganMichigan 91%
Model
Michigan -19.4 · mkt Michigan —
proj UCLA 17.8 · Michigan 37.2
Total
proj 55.0
Rutgers @ Penn StatePenn State 89%
Model
Penn State -17.2 · mkt Penn State —
proj Rutgers 18.8 · Penn State 35.9
Total
proj 54.7
Wisconsin @ PurduePurdue 51%
Model
Purdue -0.2 · mkt Purdue —
proj Wisconsin 27.9 · Purdue 28.1
Total
proj 55.9
Northwestern @ MinnesotaNorthwestern 54%
Model
Northwestern -1.3 · mkt Northwestern —
proj Northwestern 28.2 · Minnesota 26.9
Total
proj 55.0
Indiana @ WashingtonIndiana 69%
Model
Indiana -6.9 · mkt Indiana —
proj Indiana 30.7 · Washington 23.8
Total
proj 54.5
Ohio State @ NebraskaOhio State 90%
Model
Ohio State -18.3 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Ohio State 38.4 · Nebraska 20.1
Total
proj 58.5
Oregon @ Michigan StateOregon 97%
Model
Oregon -26.6 · mkt Oregon —
proj Oregon 41.8 · Michigan State 15.2
Total
proj 57.0
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.