CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 11 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 11 · 9 games
Northwestern @ Ohio StateOhio State 95%
Model
Ohio State -23.5 · mkt Ohio State —
proj Northwestern 14.4 · Ohio State 37.9
Total
proj 52.3
Minnesota @ Penn StatePenn State 90%
Model
Penn State -18.2 · mkt Penn State —
proj Minnesota 17.8 · Penn State 36.0
Total
proj 53.8
USC @ IndianaIndiana 83%
Model
Indiana -13.4 · mkt Indiana —
proj USC 20.6 · Indiana 34.0
Total
proj 54.5
Michigan @ OregonOregon 78%
Model
Oregon -11.0 · mkt Oregon —
proj Michigan 20.5 · Oregon 31.6
Total
proj 52.1
Wisconsin @ MarylandMaryland 55%
Model
Maryland -1.8 · mkt Maryland —
proj Wisconsin 26.8 · Maryland 28.5
Total
proj 55.3
Nebraska @ RutgersRutgers 50%
Model
Rutgers 0.0 · mkt Rutgers —
proj Nebraska 29.3 · Rutgers 29.3
Total
proj 58.6
Illinois @ UCLAIllinois 69%
Model
Illinois -7.2 · mkt Illinois —
proj Illinois 31.5 · UCLA 24.3
Total
proj 55.7
Washington @ Michigan StateWashington 81%
Model
Washington -12.6 · mkt Washington —
proj Washington 33.5 · Michigan State 21.0
Total
proj 54.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.