CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · Big Ten · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
North Texas @ Indiana22.4 pt gap
Model vs mktIndiana -18.1 · mkt Indiana -40.5
LeanNorth Texas +40.5
Best priceNorth Texas +40.5 -110best of 7
WinIndiana 90%
Toledo @ Michigan State16.6 pt gap
Model vs mktToledo -6.1 · mkt Toledo +10.5
LeanToledo +10.5
Best priceToledo +11.5 -115best of 7
WinToledo 67%
Ohio @ Nebraska13.1 pt gap
Model vs mktNebraska -10.4 · mkt Nebraska -23.5
LeanOhio +23.5
Best priceOhio +23.5 -112best of 8
WinNebraska 77%
Northern Illinois @ Iowa9.3 pt gap
Model vs mktIowa -39.3 · mkt Iowa -30.0
LeanIowa -30.0
Best priceIowa -30.5 -105best of 7
WinIowa 100%
Marshall @ Penn State7.7 pt gap
Model vs mktPenn State -31.2 · mkt Penn State -23.5
LeanPenn State -23.5
Best pricePenn State -22.5 -106best of 7
WinPenn State 99%
Washington State @ Washington7.7 pt gap
Model vs mktWashington -13.8 · mkt Washington -21.5
LeanWashington State +21.5
Best priceWashington State +21.5 -112best of 8
WinWashington 83%
Massachusetts @ Rutgers5.1 pt gap
Model vs mktRutgers -35.6 · mkt Rutgers -30.5
LeanRutgers -30.5
Best priceRutgers -30.5 -110best of 5
WinRutgers 99%
Ball State @ Ohio State4.7 pt gap
Model vs mktOhio State -45.3 · mkt Ohio State -50.0
LeanBall State +50.0
Best priceBall State +50.5 -112best of 7
WinOhio State 100%
Full Slate — Big Ten · Week 1 · 15 games
North Texas @ IndianaIndiana 90%
Model
Indiana -18.1 · mkt Indiana -40.5
proj North Texas 18.6 · Indiana 36.7
leans North Texas +40.5
◆ Mid 1
Indiana -39.5 -105FanDuel
North Texas +40.5 -110DraftKings
Toledo @ Michigan StateToledo 67%
Model
Toledo -6.1 · mkt Toledo +10.5
proj Toledo 33.8 · Michigan State 27.7
leans Toledo +10.5
◆ Mid 1
Michigan State -10.5 -110DraftKings
Toledo +11.5 -115FanDuel
Ohio @ NebraskaNebraska 77%
Model
Nebraska -10.4 · mkt Nebraska -23.5
proj Ohio 21.4 · Nebraska 31.8
leans Ohio +23.5
◆ Mid 0
Nebraska -23.5 -108DraftKings
Ohio +23.5 -112DraftKings
Northern Illinois @ IowaIowa 100%
Model
Iowa -39.3 · mkt Iowa -30.0
proj Northern Illinois 7.7 · Iowa 47.0
leans Iowa -30.0
◆ Mid 0
Iowa -30.5 -105DraftKings
Northern Illinois +30.5 -115DraftKings
Marshall @ Penn StatePenn State 99%
Model
Penn State -31.2 · mkt Penn State -23.5
proj Marshall 10.9 · Penn State 42.0
leans Penn State -23.5
◆ Mid 1
Penn State -22.5 -106LowVig
Marshall +23.5 -112DraftKings
Washington State @ WashingtonWashington 83%
Model
Washington -13.8 · mkt Washington -21.5
proj Washington State 19.2 · Washington 32.9
leans Washington State +21.5
◆ Mid 0
Washington -21.5 -108DraftKings
Washington State +21.5 -112DraftKings
Massachusetts @ RutgersRutgers 99%
Model
Rutgers -35.6 · mkt Rutgers -30.5
proj Massachusetts 9.9 · Rutgers 45.6
leans Rutgers -30.5
◆ Mid 0
Rutgers -30.5 -110DraftKings
Massachusetts +30.5 -110DraftKings
Ball State @ Ohio StateOhio State 100%
Model
Ohio State -45.3 · mkt Ohio State -50.0
proj Ball State 9.5 · Ohio State 54.7
leans Ball State +50.0
◆ Mid 1
Ohio State -49.5 -106LowVig
Ball State +50.5 -112DraftKings
UCLA @ CaliforniaCalifornia 66%
Model
California -5.8 · mkt California -1.5
proj UCLA 26.2 · California 32.1
leans California -1.5
◆ Mid 1.5
California 0 -106LowVig
UCLA +1.5 -112DraftKings
Western Michigan @ MichiganMichigan 95%
Model
Michigan -23.2 · mkt Michigan -26.5
proj Western Michigan 14.4 · Michigan 37.7
leans Western Michigan +26.5
◆ Mid 1
Michigan -25.5 -112FanDuel
Western Michigan +26.5 -108DraftKings
UAB @ IllinoisIllinois 96%
Model
Illinois -24.5 · mkt Illinois -27.5
proj UAB 14.2 · Illinois 38.6
leans UAB +27.5
◆ Mid 0
Illinois -27.5 -112DraftKings
UAB +27.5 -108DraftKings
Fresno State @ USCUSC 94%
Model
USC -22.3 · mkt USC -23.5
proj Fresno State 17.4 · USC 39.7
leans Fresno State +23.5
◆ Mid 1
USC -22.5 -106LowVig
Fresno State +23.5 -110DraftKings
Boise State @ OregonOregon 96%
Model
Oregon -25.6 · mkt Oregon -24.5
proj Boise State 12.9 · Oregon 38.5
leans Oregon -24.5
◆ Mid 0.5
Oregon -24.5 -115DraftKings
Boise State +25 -110BetRivers
Notre Dame @ WisconsinNotre Dame 93%
Model
Notre Dame -20.9 · mkt Notre Dame -20.5
proj Notre Dame 34.2 · Wisconsin 13.3
leans Notre Dame -20.5
Total
proj 47.5 · mkt 47.5
San José State @ USCUSC 99%
Model
USC -35.6 · mkt USC -35.5
proj San José State 8.8 · USC 44.4
leans USC -35.5
◆ Mid 0
USC -35.5 -112DraftKings
San José State +35.5 -108DraftKings
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.