CFB Betting Edge
2025 · Week 11 · Big Ten · backtest — what the model predicted vs what happened, and vs the market
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Week 11 backtest · Big Ten · 7 games — what the model predicted vs what happened
Straight up
5–271%
ATS vs close
4–357%
Model margin MAE
7.4
Market margin MAE
8.8
Results — model read vs the final score + how the closing-line lean held up
Northwestern @ USCFinal 17–38
Model
pred USC 11.3 · actual USC 21
winner USC ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Northwestern +14.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 9.7 · mkt 6.5 · mkt closer
Maryland @ RutgersFinal 20–35
Model
pred Rutgers 3.0 · actual Rutgers 15
winner Rutgers ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Rutgers -1.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 12.0 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Indiana @ Penn StateFinal 27–24
Model
pred Penn State 1.5 · actual Indiana 3
winner Penn State ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Penn State +14.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.5 · mkt 11.0 · closer
Oregon @ IowaFinal 18–16
Model
pred Oregon 5.5 · actual Oregon 2
winner Oregon ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Oregon -4.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 3.5 · mkt 2.5 · mkt closer
Washington @ WisconsinFinal 10–13
Model
pred Washington 6.9 · actual Wisconsin 3
winner Washington ✗
ATS vs close
leaned Wisconsin +10.5Cover ✓
margin err: model 9.9 · mkt 13.5 · closer
Nebraska @ UCLAFinal 28–21
Model
pred Nebraska 11.7 · actual Nebraska 7
winner Nebraska ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Nebraska +2.0Cover ✓
margin err: model 4.7 · mkt 9.0 · closer
Ohio State @ PurdueFinal 34–10
Model
pred Ohio State 31.7 · actual Ohio State 24
winner Ohio State ✓
ATS vs close
leaned Ohio State -29.5Miss ✗
margin err: model 7.7 · mkt 5.5 · mkt closer
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.