CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 13 · Big 12 · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — Big 12 · Week 13 · 8 games
West Virginia @ UtahUtah 95%
Model
Utah -23.8 · mkt Utah —
proj West Virginia 15.4 · Utah 39.2
Total
proj 54.6
TCU @ Texas TechTexas Tech 83%
Model
Texas Tech -13.5 · mkt Texas Tech —
proj TCU 21.0 · Texas Tech 34.5
Total
proj 55.5
Baylor @ HoustonHouston 71%
Model
Houston -7.8 · mkt Houston —
proj Baylor 23.2 · Houston 30.9
Total
proj 54.1
Arizona State @ ArizonaArizona 69%
Model
Arizona -7.2 · mkt Arizona —
proj Arizona State 23.3 · Arizona 30.5
Total
proj 53.9
Kansas State @ Iowa StateIowa State 62%
Model
Iowa State -4.3 · mkt Iowa State —
proj Kansas State 23.2 · Iowa State 27.5
Total
proj 50.7
Kansas @ Oklahoma StateKansas 85%
Model
Kansas -14.5 · mkt Kansas —
proj Kansas 34.9 · Oklahoma State 20.4
Total
proj 55.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.