CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 8 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 8 · 5 games

Rice @ Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic 70%

Model

Florida Atlantic -7.3 · mkt Florida Atlantic —

proj Rice 20.8 · Florida Atlantic 28.1

Total

proj 48.9

UTSA @ TulaneTulane 65%

Model

Tulane -5.6 · mkt Tulane —

proj UTSA 22.9 · Tulane 28.6

Total

proj 51.5

East Carolina @ MemphisMemphis 60%

Model

Memphis -3.6 · mkt Memphis —

proj East Carolina 25.7 · Memphis 29.2

Total

proj 54.9

North Texas @ NavyNorth Texas 52%

Model

North Texas -0.7 · mkt North Texas —

proj North Texas 30.8 · Navy 30.1

Total

proj 61.0

Army @ TulsaArmy 64%

Model

Army -5.0 · mkt Army —

proj Army 28.9 · Tulsa 23.9

Total

proj 52.7

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.