CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 7 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 7 · 7 games

Kent State @ South FloridaSouth Florida 99%

Model

South Florida -31.1 · mkt South Florida —

proj Kent State 13.1 · South Florida 44.2

Total

proj 57.3

Florida Atlantic @ ArmyArmy 89%

Model

Army -17.2 · mkt Army —

proj Florida Atlantic 16.4 · Army 33.7

Total

proj 50.1

Charlotte @ TempleTemple 84%

Model

Temple -13.9 · mkt Temple —

proj Charlotte 18.7 · Temple 32.6

Total

proj 51.2

Navy @ UTSAUTSA 64%

Model

UTSA -5.2 · mkt UTSA —

proj Navy 24.8 · UTSA 30.0

Total

proj 54.8

Memphis @ TulaneTulane 57%

Model

Tulane -2.4 · mkt Tulane —

proj Memphis 26.3 · Tulane 28.7

Total

proj 55.1

Tulsa @ RiceTulsa 52%

Model

Tulsa -0.7 · mkt Tulsa —

proj Tulsa 29.2 · Rice 28.5

Total

proj 57.7

East Carolina @ UABEast Carolina 85%

Model

East Carolina -14.6 · mkt East Carolina —

proj East Carolina 35.6 · UAB 21.0

Total

proj 56.7

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.