CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 6 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 6 · 7 games

Charlotte @ North TexasNorth Texas 99%

Model

North Texas -33.0 · mkt North Texas —

proj Charlotte 12.6 · North Texas 45.6

Total

proj 58.3

UAB @ MemphisMemphis 92%

Model

Memphis -19.8 · mkt Memphis —

proj UAB 18.4 · Memphis 38.2

Total

proj 56.6

Rice @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 90%

Model

East Carolina -18.6 · mkt East Carolina —

proj Rice 16.4 · East Carolina 35.0

Total

proj 51.4

Tulsa @ NavyNavy 89%

Model

Navy -17.1 · mkt Navy —

proj Tulsa 21.0 · Navy 38.1

Total

proj 59.0

Tulane @ ArmyArmy 50%

Model

Army -0.1 · mkt Army —

proj Tulane 26.4 · Army 26.5

Total

proj 53.0

South Florida @ UTSASouth Florida 56%

Model

South Florida -2.1 · mkt South Florida —

proj South Florida 28.5 · UTSA 26.4

Total

proj 54.9

UConn @ TempleUConn 64%

Model

UConn -5.2 · mkt UConn —

proj UConn 31.0 · Temple 25.8

Total

proj 56.7

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.