CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 3 · 9 games
Temple @ ToledoToledo 90%
Model
Toledo -18.2 · mkt Toledo —
proj Temple 22.4 · Toledo 40.6
Total
proj 63.0
Charlotte @ App StateApp State 77%
Model
App State -10.5 · mkt App State —
proj Charlotte 22.1 · App State 32.6
Total
proj 54.8
UAB @ LouisianaLouisiana 73%
Model
Louisiana -8.7 · mkt Louisiana —
proj UAB 21.6 · Louisiana 30.2
Total
proj 51.8
Tulane @ Kansas StateKansas State 65%
Model
Kansas State -5.6 · mkt Kansas State —
proj Tulane 23.1 · Kansas State 28.7
Total
proj 51.8
Florida International @ Florida AtlanticFlorida Atlantic 60%
Model
Florida Atlantic -3.5 · mkt Florida Atlantic —
proj Florida International 25.6 · Florida Atlantic 29.0
Total
proj 54.6
East Carolina @ Old DominionOld Dominion 54%
Model
Old Dominion -1.3 · mkt Old Dominion —
proj East Carolina 26.6 · Old Dominion 27.9
Total
proj 54.5
North Texas @ Texas StateNorth Texas 63%
Model
North Texas -4.8 · mkt North Texas —
proj North Texas 28.9 · Texas State 24.1
Total
proj 52.9
Western Michigan @ RiceWestern Michigan 72%
Model
Western Michigan -8.4 · mkt Western Michigan —
proj Western Michigan 32.4 · Rice 24.0
Total
proj 56.4
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.