CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 2 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 2 · 12 games
Charlotte @ Ole MissOle Miss 100%
Model
Ole Miss -38.9 · mkt Ole Miss —
proj Charlotte 10.6 · Ole Miss 49.5
Total
proj 60.1
Rice @ Notre DameNotre Dame 99%
Model
Notre Dame -35.1 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Rice 14.1 · Notre Dame 49.2
Total
proj 63.3
South Alabama @ TulaneTulane 90%
Model
Tulane -18.3 · mkt Tulane —
proj South Alabama 15.4 · Tulane 33.7
Total
proj 49.1
App State @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 88%
Model
East Carolina -16.9 · mkt East Carolina —
proj App State 19.1 · East Carolina 36.0
Total
proj 55.2
UNLV @ North TexasNorth Texas 70%
Model
North Texas -7.5 · mkt North Texas —
proj UNLV 22.7 · North Texas 30.2
Total
proj 52.9
Memphis @ Boise StateBoise State 58%
Model
Boise State -2.7 · mkt Boise State —
proj Memphis 25.3 · Boise State 28.0
Total
proj 53.3
UTSA @ Texas StateTexas State 55%
Model
Texas State -1.7 · mkt Texas State —
proj UTSA 28.2 · Texas State 30.0
Total
proj 58.2
Tulsa @ Sam HoustonTulsa 68%
Model
Tulsa -6.5 · mkt Tulsa —
proj Tulsa 31.4 · Sam Houston 24.9
Total
proj 56.3
South Florida @ ArmySouth Florida 71%
Model
South Florida -8.0 · mkt South Florida —
proj South Florida 29.0 · Army 21.1
Total
proj 50.1
Navy @ Florida AtlanticNavy 75%
Model
Navy -9.7 · mkt Navy —
proj Navy 33.5 · Florida Atlantic 23.8
Total
proj 57.4
Penn State @ TemplePenn State 95%
Model
Penn State -23.1 · mkt Penn State —
proj Penn State 41.2 · Temple 18.1
Total
proj 59.3
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.