CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 13 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 13 · 7 games

UAB @ North TexasNorth Texas 93%

Model

North Texas -20.9 · mkt North Texas —

proj UAB 17.5 · North Texas 38.4

Total

proj 55.9

Tulsa @ UTSAUTSA 89%

Model

UTSA -17.5 · mkt UTSA —

proj Tulsa 17.2 · UTSA 34.7

Total

proj 51.9

Florida Atlantic @ East CarolinaEast Carolina 89%

Model

East Carolina -17.4 · mkt East Carolina —

proj Florida Atlantic 18.8 · East Carolina 36.2

Total

proj 55.0

Temple @ MemphisMemphis 87%

Model

Memphis -16.1 · mkt Memphis —

proj Temple 18.0 · Memphis 34.1

Total

proj 52.1

Tulane @ South FloridaSouth Florida 81%

Model

South Florida -12.3 · mkt South Florida —

proj Tulane 22.4 · South Florida 34.7

Total

proj 57.1

Army @ RiceArmy 80%

Model

Army -11.7 · mkt Army —

proj Army 31.0 · Rice 19.3

Total

proj 50.3

Navy @ CharlotteNavy 94%

Model

Navy -21.5 · mkt Navy —

proj Navy 36.5 · Charlotte 15.0

Total

proj 51.4

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.