CFB Betting Edge

2026 · Week 11 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge

All Big Ten SEC Big 12 ACC FBS Independents Pac-12 American Athletic Mountain West Sun Belt Mid-American Conference USA

Season2026 2025 2024

Week1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 11 · 6 games

Memphis @ South FloridaSouth Florida 78%

Model

South Florida -10.7 · mkt South Florida —

proj Memphis 21.1 · South Florida 31.9

Total

proj 53.0

UAB @ TempleTemple 70%

Model

Temple -7.5 · mkt Temple —

proj UAB 23.2 · Temple 30.6

Total

proj 53.8

Florida Atlantic @ TulsaTulsa 57%

Model

Tulsa -2.5 · mkt Tulsa —

proj Florida Atlantic 25.2 · Tulsa 27.7

Total

proj 52.8

North Texas @ UTSANorth Texas 63%

Model

North Texas -4.9 · mkt North Texas —

proj North Texas 29.7 · UTSA 24.8

Total

proj 54.5

Tulane @ RiceTulane 85%

Model

Tulane -14.8 · mkt Tulane —

proj Tulane 35.2 · Rice 20.4

Total

proj 55.6

East Carolina @ CharlotteEast Carolina 93%

Model

East Carolina -21.3 · mkt East Carolina —

proj East Carolina 36.2 · Charlotte 14.9

Total

proj 51.1

The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.