CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 1 · American Athletic · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
North Texas @ Indiana22.4 pt gap
Model vs mktIndiana -18.1 · mkt Indiana -40.5
LeanNorth Texas +40.5
Best priceNorth Texas +40.5 -110best of 7
WinIndiana 90%
Oklahoma State @ Tulsa13.9 pt gap
Model vs mktTulsa -1.9 · mkt Tulsa +12.0
LeanTulsa +12.0
Best priceTulsa +13.5 -115best of 7
WinTulsa 55%
East Carolina @ Alabama10.9 pt gap
Model vs mktAlabama -15.1 · mkt Alabama -26.0
LeanEast Carolina +26.0
Best priceEast Carolina +26.5 -108best of 8
WinAlabama 86%
Florida International @ South Florida10.4 pt gap
Model vs mktSouth Florida -22.9 · mkt South Florida -12.5
LeanSouth Florida -12.5
Best priceSouth Florida -11.5 -110best of 7
WinSouth Florida 95%
Tulane @ Duke4.8 pt gap
Model vs mktDuke -4.2 · mkt Duke -9.0
LeanTulane +9.0
Best priceTulane +10.5 -105best of 7
WinDuke 62%
UAB @ Illinois3.0 pt gap
Model vs mktIllinois -24.5 · mkt Illinois -27.5
LeanUAB +27.5
Best priceUAB +27.5 -108best of 6
WinIllinois 96%
Florida Atlantic @ Florida1.9 pt gap
Model vs mktFlorida -27.9 · mkt Florida -26.0
LeanFlorida -26.0
Best priceFlorida -26 -106best of 8
WinFlorida 98%
Memphis @ UNLV1.3 pt gap
Model vs mktUNLV -1.7 · mkt UNLV -3.0
LeanMemphis +3.0
Best priceMemphis +4.5 -105best of 8
WinUNLV 55%
Full Slate — American Athletic · Week 1 · 9 games
North Texas @ IndianaIndiana 90%
Model
Indiana -18.1 · mkt Indiana -40.5
proj North Texas 18.6 · Indiana 36.7
leans North Texas +40.5
◆ Mid 1
Indiana -39.5 -105FanDuel
North Texas +40.5 -110DraftKings
Oklahoma State @ TulsaTulsa 55%
Model
Tulsa -1.9 · mkt Tulsa +12.0
proj Oklahoma State 26.8 · Tulsa 28.7
leans Tulsa +12.0
◆ Mid 1
Tulsa +13.5 -115FanDuel
Oklahoma State -12.5 -112DraftKings
East Carolina @ AlabamaAlabama 86%
Model
Alabama -15.1 · mkt Alabama -26.0
proj East Carolina 18.6 · Alabama 33.7
leans East Carolina +26.0
◆ Mid 1
Alabama -25.5 -115FanDuel
East Carolina +26.5 -108DraftKings
Florida International @ South FloridaSouth Florida 95%
Model
South Florida -22.9 · mkt South Florida -12.5
proj Florida International 15.7 · South Florida 38.6
leans South Florida -12.5
◆ Mid 1
South Florida -11.5 -110FanDuel
Florida International +12.5 -108DraftKings
Tulane @ DukeDuke 62%
Model
Duke -4.2 · mkt Duke -9.0
proj Tulane 25.0 · Duke 29.2
leans Tulane +9.0
◆ Mid 1
Duke -9.5 -105DraftKings
Tulane +10.5 -105FanDuel
UAB @ IllinoisIllinois 96%
Model
Illinois -24.5 · mkt Illinois -27.5
proj UAB 14.2 · Illinois 38.6
leans UAB +27.5
◆ Mid 0
Illinois -27.5 -112DraftKings
UAB +27.5 -108DraftKings
Florida Atlantic @ FloridaFlorida 98%
Model
Florida -27.9 · mkt Florida -26.0
proj Florida Atlantic 14.6 · Florida 42.4
leans Florida -26.0
◆ Mid 0.5
Florida -26 -106LowVig
Florida Atlantic +26.5 -108DraftKings
Memphis @ UNLVUNLV 55%
Model
UNLV -1.7 · mkt UNLV -3.0
proj Memphis 26.1 · UNLV 27.8
leans Memphis +3.0
◆ Mid 1
UNLV -3.5 -105DraftKings
Memphis +4.5 -105FanDuel
Arkansas State @ MemphisMemphis 75%
Model
Memphis -9.6 · mkt Memphis -10.5
proj Arkansas State 19.4 · Memphis 29.1
leans Arkansas State +10.5
◆ Mid 0
Memphis -10.5 -110DraftKings
Arkansas State +10.5 -110DraftKings
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.