CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 5 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Notre Dame @ North Carolina3.6 pt gap
Model vs mktNotre Dame -27.1 · mkt Notre Dame ~-23.5
LeanNotre Dame -23.5
Best priceNotre Dame -23.5 -110best of 1
WinNotre Dame 97%
Miami @ Clemson0.4 pt gap
Model vs mktMiami -7.1 · mkt Miami ~-6.7
LeanMiami -6.7
Best priceMiami -6.5 -110best of 2
WinMiami 69%
Full Slate — ACC · Week 5 · 9 games
Notre Dame @ North CarolinaNotre Dame 97%
Model
Notre Dame -27.1 · mkt Notre Dame ~-23.5
proj Notre Dame 36.6 · North Carolina 9.5
leans Notre Dame -23.5
◆ Mid 0
North Carolina +23.5 -110DraftKings
Notre Dame -23.5 -110DraftKings
Miami @ ClemsonMiami 69%
Model
Miami -7.1 · mkt Miami ~-6.7
proj Miami 30.7 · Clemson 23.7
leans Miami -6.7
◆ Mid 0.5
Clemson +7 -110DraftKings
Miami -6.5 -110BetMGM
Boston College @ SMUSMU 90%
Model
SMU -18.5 · mkt SMU —
proj Boston College 16.0 · SMU 34.5
Total
proj 50.5
Stanford @ Wake ForestWake Forest 66%
Model
Wake Forest -6.0 · mkt Wake Forest —
proj Stanford 23.0 · Wake Forest 29.0
Total
proj 52.0
Virginia @ Florida StateFlorida State 60%
Model
Florida State -3.4 · mkt Florida State —
proj Virginia 24.8 · Florida State 28.2
Total
proj 53.0
Louisville @ NC StateLouisville 55%
Model
Louisville -1.7 · mkt Louisville —
proj Louisville 28.4 · NC State 26.6
Total
proj 55.0
Pittsburgh @ Virginia TechPittsburgh 64%
Model
Pittsburgh -5.2 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Pittsburgh 31.7 · Virginia Tech 26.5
Total
proj 58.2
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.