CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 4 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
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Full Slate — ACC · Week 4 · 8 games
Central Michigan @ MiamiMiami 100%
Model
Miami -40.1 · mkt Miami —
proj Central Michigan 8.1 · Miami 48.3
Total
proj 56.4
Missouri State @ SMUSMU 97%
Model
SMU -27.6 · mkt SMU —
proj Missouri State 14.8 · SMU 42.4
Total
proj 57.2
Delaware @ VirginiaVirginia 97%
Model
Virginia -27.4 · mkt Virginia —
proj Delaware 11.9 · Virginia 39.2
Total
proj 51.1
App State @ NC StateNC State 84%
Model
NC State -14.2 · mkt NC State —
proj App State 20.4 · NC State 34.7
Total
proj 55.1
Wake Forest @ LouisvilleLouisville 77%
Model
Louisville -10.3 · mkt Louisville —
proj Wake Forest 22.5 · Louisville 32.8
Total
proj 55.3
Virginia Tech @ Boston CollegeVirginia Tech 51%
Model
Virginia Tech -0.5 · mkt Virginia Tech —
proj Virginia Tech 27.7 · Boston College 27.2
Total
proj 54.9
Georgia Tech @ StanfordGeorgia Tech 77%
Model
Georgia Tech -10.4 · mkt Georgia Tech —
proj Georgia Tech 31.2 · Stanford 20.8
Total
proj 52.0
Clemson @ CaliforniaClemson 79%
Model
Clemson -11.2 · mkt Clemson —
proj Clemson 34.4 · California 23.1
Total
proj 57.5
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.