CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 3 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Top Edges — biggest model vs market gaps + best price
Florida State @ Alabama3.5 pt gap
Model vs mktAlabama -12.0 · mkt Alabama ~-15.5
LeanFlorida State +15.5
Best priceFlorida State +15.5 -110best of 1
WinAlabama 80%
SMU @ Louisville1.1 pt gap
Model vs mktLouisville -2.6 · mkt Louisville ~-1.5
LeanLouisville -1.5
Best priceLouisville -1.5 -110best of 1
WinLouisville 57%
Full Slate — ACC · Week 3 · 9 games
Florida State @ AlabamaAlabama 80%
Model
Alabama -12.0 · mkt Alabama ~-15.5
proj Florida State 21.6 · Alabama 33.5
leans Florida State +15.5
◆ Mid 0
Alabama -15.5 -110DraftKings
Florida State +15.5 -110DraftKings
SMU @ LouisvilleLouisville 57%
Model
Louisville -2.6 · mkt Louisville ~-1.5
proj SMU 25.8 · Louisville 28.3
leans Louisville -1.5
◆ Mid 0
Louisville -1.5 -110DraftKings
SMU +1.5 -110DraftKings
North Carolina @ ClemsonClemson 93%
Model
Clemson -21.0 · mkt Clemson —
proj North Carolina 16.8 · Clemson 37.8
Total
proj 54.6
Syracuse @ PittsburghPittsburgh 83%
Model
Pittsburgh -13.4 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Syracuse 22.1 · Pittsburgh 35.5
Total
proj 57.6
NC State @ VanderbiltVanderbilt 78%
Model
Vanderbilt -11.2 · mkt Vanderbilt —
proj NC State 19.5 · Vanderbilt 30.6
Total
proj 50.1
Virginia Tech @ MarylandMaryland 57%
Model
Maryland -2.4 · mkt Maryland —
proj Virginia Tech 26.8 · Maryland 29.1
Total
proj 55.9
Virginia @ West VirginiaVirginia 67%
Model
Virginia -6.3 · mkt Virginia —
proj Virginia 29.0 · West Virginia 22.7
Total
proj 51.8
Miami @ Wake ForestMiami 89%
Model
Miami -17.7 · mkt Miami —
proj Miami 37.9 · Wake Forest 20.2
Total
proj 58.1
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.