CFB Betting Edge
2026 · Week 11 · ACC · the model's read vs the market — informational, not an ATS edge
AllBig TenSECBig 12ACCFBS IndependentsPac-12American AthleticMountain WestSun BeltMid-AmericanConference USA
Full Slate — ACC · Week 11 · 9 games
Boston College @ Notre DameNotre Dame 98%
Model
Notre Dame -30.0 · mkt Notre Dame —
proj Boston College 13.6 · Notre Dame 43.6
Total
proj 57.2
California @ VirginiaVirginia 81%
Model
Virginia -12.2 · mkt Virginia —
proj California 20.5 · Virginia 32.7
Total
proj 53.2
Syracuse @ NC StateNC State 80%
Model
NC State -12.0 · mkt NC State —
proj Syracuse 21.8 · NC State 33.8
Total
proj 55.6
Georgia Tech @ ClemsonClemson 71%
Model
Clemson -7.9 · mkt Clemson —
proj Georgia Tech 22.6 · Clemson 30.5
Total
proj 53.2
Stanford @ Virginia TechVirginia Tech 62%
Model
Virginia Tech -4.4 · mkt Virginia Tech —
proj Stanford 26.2 · Virginia Tech 30.6
Total
proj 56.8
Florida State @ PittsburghPittsburgh 54%
Model
Pittsburgh -1.5 · mkt Pittsburgh —
proj Florida State 25.7 · Pittsburgh 27.1
Total
proj 52.8
Louisville @ North CarolinaLouisville 79%
Model
Louisville -11.5 · mkt Louisville —
proj Louisville 33.0 · North Carolina 21.6
Total
proj 54.6
The model beats SP+ but not the closing line (ATS ≈ break-even). “Model−Mkt” is the gap between our projected home margin and the market's implied margin — a read on disagreement, not a profitable edge. Upcoming games have no closing line yet, so the market number marked ~ is the consensus midpoint of the best posted spreads across books.