Pro Baseball Terminal — MLB projections, standings & analytics

Merrill Kelly

P · AZ

37 yrs

Pitcher

Description

Position: P
Team: AZ
Type: Pitcher
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Born: 1988-10-14
Age: 37
Country: USA
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 202 lb
Last active: 2026

Career Résumé

8 seasons

Seasons	8 2019–2026
Games	184
W-L	70-59
ERA	3.90
WHIP	1.22
IP	1078
SO	953
SV	0

Projections

2026 · model

Stat	Proj	Range (p10–p90)	vs LY
HR	15	4–38	+15
RBI	62	36–97	+51
Runs	56	37–85	+45
Hits	124	89–155	+90
2B	19	9–38	+8
3B	2	0–9	0
SB	3	1–11	+3
BB	52	21–69	+7
SO	184	142–249	-118

Pitching Projections

2026 · per ~700 BF

Stat	Proj	Range (p10–p90)	vs LY
SO	151	121–168	-6
BB	51	41–66	0
HR	22	15–30	+1
Hits	154	135–180	+10
ER	76	57–96	+9

Pitching

Regular season

Season	Tm	W	L	ERA	WHIP	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	ER	xERA	Brl%
2026	AZ	5	6	5.81	1.51	12	12	69.2	42	28	15	45	7.20	14.4%
2025	TEX	12	9	3.52	1.11	32	32	184.0	167	48	23	72	4.16	9.2%
2024	AZ	5	1	4.03	1.17	13	13	73.2	63	19	11	33	4.97	10.7%
2023	AZ	12	8	3.29	1.19	30	30	177.2	187	69	20	65	4.13	7.8%
2022	AZ	13	8	3.37	1.14	33	33	200.1	177	61	21	75	3.62	8.3%
2021	AZ	7	11	4.44	1.29	27	27	158.0	130	41	21	78	4.48	6.3%
2020	AZ	3	2	2.59	0.99	5	5	31.1	29	5	5	9	3.90	11.1%
2019	AZ	13	14	4.42	1.31	32	32	183.1	158	57	29	90	5.34	9.5%

Fielding

Regular season · OAA 2016+

Season	Pos	G	GS	Inn	PO	A	E	DP	FLD%	RF/9	OAA
2026	P	11	11	64.1	7	5	0	0	1.000	1.68	—
2025	P	32	32	184.0	13	22	3	0	.921	1.71	—
2024	P	13	13	73.2	9	5	2	0	.875	1.71	—
2023	P	30	30	177.2	12	12	2	2	.923	1.22	—
2022	P	33	33	200.1	15	19	1	2	.971	1.53	—
2021	P	27	27	158.0	13	16	0	2	1.000	1.65	—
2020	P	5	5	31.1	7	3	0	0	1.000	2.87	—
2019	P	32	32	183.1	21	14	4	2	.897	1.72	—

Batting game log

2026 · last 2

Date		Opp	Res	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB
2026-06-28	@	TB	L	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2026-06-22	@	STL	L	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Pitching game log

2026 · last 14

Date		Opp	Res	Dec	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	Pit
2026-06-28	@	TB	L	L	6.0	8	5	5	3	2	3	93
2026-06-22	@	STL	L	L	6.0	7	3	3	0	3	2	96
2026-06-16	vs	LAA	L	L	5.1	11	6	6	2	1	4	88
2026-06-11	@	MIA	L	L	6.0	4	2	2	0	2	1	74
2026-06-05	vs	WSH	L	L	5.0	6	7	7	3	3	4	85
2026-05-31	@	SEA	L	ND	5.1	8	2	2	2	2	2	97
2026-05-25	@	SF	W	W	7.0	4	2	2	0	2	4	96
2026-05-20	vs	SF	W	W	6.0	8	3	3	1	0	4	85
2026-05-15	@	COL	W	W	9.0	4	1	1	1	0	3	100
2026-05-09	vs	NYM	W	W	7.0	3	1	1	0	3	6	96
2026-05-03	@	CHC	L	L	4.1	8	6	6	1	3	5	92
2026-04-28	@	MIL	L	L	5.0	6	5	5	1	5	1	104
2026-04-21	vs	CWS	L	L	4.1	10	8	8	3	3	5	101
2026-04-14	@	BAL	W	W	5.1	5	2	2	1	4	3	86

2021 · vs 411

xwOBA

.1130

AVG

.0640

SLG

.0850

Barrel%

0.0%0

Hard%

14.8%0

76.40

BB%

6.9%29

46.6%0

PlayerMedian (50th)percentile vs league

Career Highs

Stat	Best	Year
Wins	13	2022
SO	187	2023
SV	0	2026
ERA	2.59	2020
WHIP	0.99	2020

Comparable Players

2026 · stat-profile similarity

Adrian HouserSF33y
5.73 ERA · 48 K · 1.58 WHIP
90%
vs
Nick LodoloCIN28y
6.12 ERA · 32 K · 1.59 WHIP
90%
vs
Aaron CivaleATH31y
4.91 ERA · 41 K · 1.59 WHIP
88%
vs
Mike BurrowsHOU26y
5.79 ERA · 66 K · 1.58 WHIP
87%
vs
Steven MatzTB35y
5.65 ERA · 39 K · 1.33 WHIP
86%
vs

Career Arc

ERA by season · taller = better

Year over Year

pitching trajectory

Yr	Tm	W	ERA	WHIP	SO	IP
21	AZ	7	4.44	1.29	130	158
22	AZ	13▲	3.37▼	1.14▼	177▲	200▲
23	AZ	12▼	3.29▼	1.19▲	187▲	178▼
24	AZ	5▼	4.03▲	1.17▼	63▼	74▼
25	TEX	12▲	3.52▼	1.11▼	167▲	184▲
26	AZ	5▼	5.81▲	1.51▲	42▼	70▼

Career Milestones

chase to the next mark

Wins70

30 to 100

Strikeouts953

47 to 1,000

Season

Pitch Arsenal

2025 · Statcast

Pitch	Use	Velo	Spin
Changeup	27%	88.3	2159
4-Seam	23%	91.9	2368
Cutter	20%	90.6	2374
Sinker	13%	92.3	2223
Curve	10%	81.7	2616
Slider	7%	85.8	2365

Plate Discipline

2025 · induced

32.9%

Chase

lg 28.5%

67.2%

Z-Swing

lg 67%

21.5%

Whiff

lg 24.5%

78.5%

Contact

lg 76%

46.6%

Zone

lg 48.5%

27.1%

CSW

lg 28%

2,909 pitches · green/red vs league avg

Statcast Trend

xERA by season · taller = better

Barrel% Against by season · taller = better

Per game	8.3
Ceiling (90th)	24.1
Floor (10th)	-2.4
Std dev	9.7
Boom rate	36%
Bust rate	43%
Profile	Volatile